This list is based on the statistical analysis found here. Essentially, it is a prediction of which players under the age of 24 are most likely to become an All-Star at some point in their career based on their NBA regular season stats and how those stats have historically translated to a players chances of becoming an All-Star over the past 30 years in the NBA.
On average, players under the age of 24 have about an 8% chance of becoming an All-Star.
Players marked with a star(*) have already been selected to an All-Star team at least once in their career.
Player | Team | Probability of Becoming an All-Star | |
1 | Paolo Banchero* | ORL | 0.697900205 |
2 | Zion Williamson* | NOP | 0.663941456 |
3 | Victor Wembanyama | SAS | 0.603214154 |
4 | Anthony Edwards* | MIN | 0.533215199 |
5 | LaMelo Ball* | CHO | 0.50325745 |
6 | Jalen Green | HOU | 0.461236975 |
7 | Tyrese Haliburton* | IND | 0.447273061 |
8 | RJ Barrett | TOT | 0.442873499 |
9 | Alperen Sengun | HOU | 0.439512159 |
10 | Scottie Barnes* | TOR | 0.435285202 |
11 | Franz Wagner | ORL | 0.43194921 |
12 | Chet Holmgren | OKC | 0.425050884 |
13 | Cade Cunningham | DET | 0.391958223 |
14 | Jaden Ivey | DET | 0.384793825 |
15 | Evan Mobley | CLE | 0.377768476 |
16 | Tyrese Maxey* | PHI | 0.359040917 |
17 | Jalen Williams | OKC | 0.355736815 |
18 | Josh Giddey | OKC | 0.355694613 |
19 | Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | 0.3056756 |
20 | Bennedict Mathurin | IND | 0.263931829 |
21 | Brandon Miller | CHO | 0.261199136 |
22 | Cole Anthony | ORL | 0.258613201 |
23 | Jeremy Sochan | SAS | 0.25172027 |
24 | Amen Thompson | HOU | 0.243551156 |
25 | Jalen Duren | DET | 0.242953173 |
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26 | Cam Thomas | BRK | 0.231085075 |
27 | Keyonte George | UTA | 0.218435102 |
28 | Jalen Suggs | ORL | 0.21650673 |
29 | Devin Vassell | SAS | 0.210925418 |
30 | Keegan Murray | SAC | 0.210478292 |
31 | Scoot Henderson | POR | 0.209995643 |
32 | Jonathan Kuminga | GSW | 0.187021186 |
33 | Deni Avdija | WAS | 0.177714826 |
34 | GG Jackson II | MEM | 0.175229231 |
35 | Ausar Thompson | DET | 0.174154043 |
36 | Coby White | CHI | 0.156266072 |
37 | Trey Murphy III | NOP | 0.147369779 |
38 | Cam Whitmore | HOU | 0.144736331 |
39 | Isaiah Stewart | DET | 0.138060685 |
40 | Brandin Podziemski | GSW | 0.13556544 |
41 | Tristan Vukcevic | WAS | 0.131145868 |
42 | Tari Eason | HOU | 0.130509304 |
43 | Ricky Council IV | PHI | 0.129412359 |
44 | Trayce Jackson-Davis | GSW | 0.121039579 |
45 | Talen Horton-Tucker | UTA | 0.119941612 |
46 | Scotty Pippen Jr. | MEM | 0.119648565 |
47 | Jalen Johnson | ATL | 0.115909187 |
48 | Killian Hayes | DET | 0.113407069 |
49 | Isaiah Jackson | IND | 0.107545952 |
50 | Dereck Lively II | DAL | 0.105097381 |
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