Trae Young is one of the premiere offensive players in the NBA, but is he a fit for the Utah Jazz? Would a Trae Young trade fit the bill “big game hunting” as Danny Ainge said the Jazz are looking to do this offseason. This article will examine what the numbers say Trae Young’s impact on winning with the Utah Jazz would be as well as some observations concerning his fit with the Utah Jazz.
If you are interested in where these numbers come from, the statistical analysis used to make these predictions can be found here. Essentially, I ran a regression to determine the impact of certain statistics on winning in the NBA. I then estimated the effect trading for players would have on team statistics using their old teams stats in games they played versus games they didn’t play, their own individual stats for the past season, and the stats of the player(s) whose minutes they would be taking.
These numbers assume that Trae Young is taking the minutes of Jordan Clarkson and about 5 of the minutes of Kris Dunn. He would be playing 36 minutes per night, the same amount he did in Atlanta this past season.
The Numbers
Pros
If Trae Young were to join the Utah Jazz and take the minutes of Jordan Clarkson and some minutes from Kris Dunn, the Jazz’s field goal percentage would increase by an estimated 1.07%, and their three point percentage would increase by an estimated 0.5%. Steals would be expected to increase by .14 steals per game and turnovers would decrease by .97 per game.
These expected statistical changes would be correlated with an additional 10 wins.
Cons
There are some deficiencies that Trae Young would bring to the Utah Jazz that offset most of those additional wins from the pros side.
If the trade were to happen, the jazz would be expected to bring in .53 less offensive rebounds and .61 less defensive rebounds per game. The team would take an additional .94 shots overall (which is negatively associated with winning) and .68 fewer three point attempts. Add to that the fact that because teams are continually improving, staying the same from one year to the next would mean winning 1.95 less games on average and these cons would lead to an estimated 8 fewer wins over an 82 game season.
That means that overall, the Jazz would be expected to win 1 more game in the regular season when accounting for the positive and negative effects Trae Young would have on the roster. That would move the Jazz from 31 wins to about 32 wins, which would have the Jazz once again finishing in 12th place in the West.
The Eye Test
Starting with the positive, Lauri Markkanen would greatly benefit from playing alongside a bona fide playmaker such as Trae Young. Young draws a lot of attention and has shown the ability to set the table for his teammates. Markkanen is one of the premiere off-ball scorers in the league, with his movement, ability to come off screens, and shooting prowess. Playing alongside Mike Conley showed the potential benefits having a play maker to pair with Lauri Markkanen. Not to mention the chemistry Trae Young and John Collins have already shown flashes of in the past in the pick and roll. Taylor Hendricks, who has shown flashes of the ability to shoot and defend at the end of the 2023-2024 season, and Walker Kessler, whose shots are almost always assisted are other players who would benefit offensively from playing alongside Trae Young.
Assuming the Jazz were able to keep this seasons starters while trading for Trae Young, he would be playing alongside either Collin Sexton or Keyonte George in the backcourt with some time alongside Kris Dunn. Young’s pairing with Sexton or George is worrisome to say the least. Both Sexton and George are ball dominant guards who are below average defensively. Young would presumably be the primary ball handler, and is generally considered a poor defender by most. Not to mention the Jazz back-court would be considerably smaller than most, adding to their defensive woes.
There is a possibility that Keyonte George makes massive strides in his game in the coming years, and becomes a better defender and shooter, allowing him to play successfully alongside Trae Young, seeing as how he is still very young. His future is still undecided, with Danny Ainge stating that it is unclear what George’s role will be moving forward. It’s possible that the acquisition of Trae Young would allow George to get more comfortable by moving off the ball and facing less defensive pressure by being the primary playmaker. Time will tell, but at this point it is almost purely conjecture to predict the future steps Keyonte George will make in his game.
There is also a possibility that by simply having two all-star players on the Jazz in Markkanen and Young, other star players would be enticed to join the team, thereby vaulting the Jazz into contention.
Conclusion
Trading for Trae young alone would not be enough to elevate the Utah Jazz into contender status. If the Jazz were able to trade for additional talent to pair with Young and Markkanen, the Jazz could become one of the better young teams in the league. It is also possible that the Jazz rookies and draft picks would make sizable improvements over the next two or three years, allowing the Jazz to exceed expectations and become a solid playoff team with Trae Young at the helm.
In all likelihood, the Jazz would become a middle of the pack team if they were to trade for Trae Young. The wins alone would not be worth the cost of acquiring Young. The question that needs to be answered, then, is if he would have the ability to help the younger members of the team to develop and to entice other stars to join the Utah Jazz.
If so, maybe a trade for Trae Young wouldn’t be such bad idea. Otherwise, the team is better off waiting for another star level player to be available or building through the draft.
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