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Among the players rumored to be available for trade, one intriguing option for the Utah Jazz is Brandon Ingram. This article will discuss how Ingram would be expected to impact winning for the Jazz, and his overall fit with the team.
If you are interested in where these numbers come from, the statistical analysis used to make these predictions can be found here. Essentially, I ran a regression to determine the impact of certain statistics on winning in the NBA. I then estimated the effect of trading for specific players on team statistics using the player’s current teams’ stats in games they played versus games they didn’t play, their own individual stats for the past season, and the stats of the player(s) whose minutes they would be taking.
These numbers assume that Brandon Ingram would be taking the minutes of Jordan Clarkson, and relegating Brice Sensabaugh to a more limited role than he had at the end of the 2023-2024 season.
The Numbers
Pros
If the Utah Jazz traded for Brandon Ingram, they could expect to take about 1.12 less shots per game, and increase their shooting percentage by 1.44 percentage points. Their three point attempts would decrease by an estimated 2.55 attempts per game, and their three point percentage would increase by about 1.07 percentage points. Turnovers per game would be expected to go down by 3.24 per game, and defensive rebounds would be expected to increase by 4.29 per game.
If the Jazz were only getting the positive effects of trading for Brandon Ingram, after adding up the estimated effects of the pros above, they would be expected to win about 15 more games in the 2024-2025 season.
Cons
Every player does come with some negatives, and Brandon Ingram is no exception. If Brandon Ingram joined the Utah Jazz, they would be expected to take 2.36 less three pointers per game, their free throw percentage would decrease by an estimated 1.29 percentage points, and steals and offensive rebounds would be down .12 and .85 per game respectively.
On top of his personal shortcomings, because of the way the league is constantly improving, teams are expected to win about 2 less games per year if they stay the same.
Add the effects of all the cons up and you get a total of 8 less games per year the Jazz would win because of the downsides of Brandon Ingram’s game.
Overall
Overall, the Utah Jazz would be expected to win 7 more games next season as a direct result of Brandon Ingram taking the minutes of Jordan Clarkson and relegating Brice Sensabaugh to a more limited role. This would move the Jazz from 31 wins to about 38 wins next season. That number of wins alone would not be enough to get the Jazz into the play in tournament, let alone the playoffs. There are, however, a few reasons to believe the total number of wins would be higher than 38.
For one, Lauri Markkanen was injured and did not play much after the all star break this past season. If he was able to stay healthy next to Ingram, we could expect the Jazz to add a few more wins due to his presence. Additionally, it is expected that rookies Keyonte George, Taylor Hendricks, and Brice Sensabaugh will take strides in shooting efficiency and defense in their sophomore season, further adding to the wins the Jazz could expect in the coming season.
With that said, the high end of win total expectations for the Utah Jazz if this is the only trade they make this offseason seems to be in the mid forties, which would likely get them into the play in tournament, but not any more.
The Eye Test
Brandon Ingram is 25 years old, and as such fits the Utah Jazz’s timeline. He is young enough that he could still improve, and he has shown the ability to improve his game in the past, as attested by the fact that he won the most improved player award in the 2019-2020 season.
Offensively, Ingram is a threat from the mid-range and is a great rim finisher, finishing about 75% of his shots at the rim. He would likely be playing in a starting lineup of Keyonte George, Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, and John Collins. He would take a considerable amount of defensive focus off the rest of the team and be a great secondary scoring option next to Markkanen. Ingram, Markkanen, and Sexton each have the potential to be 20 point per game scorers and would create a three headed dragon that could be very difficult to stop.
The question mark offensively for Ingram is his three point shooting. He is a career 36.2 percent three point shooter and shot only 35.5 percent from three this past season on few attempts. He has, however, shown that he has three point shooting potential, shooting 39% in the 2022-2023 season. That was on limited attempts, but if he could even get back above 37% three point shooting, it would open up the floor for him and his teammates to get to the basket more easily.
Defensively, Ingram is not perfect, but he is long and athletic. He stands at 6’9 and has a 7’3 wingspan. He is not a great primary stopper, but his length could offer some secondary rim protection and get in passing lanes leading to increased steals. The Jazz defense was among the worst in the league during the 2023-2024 season, and they likely would get better, not worse with the addition of Ingram.
Conclusion
The Jazz would undoubtedly be a better team with the addition of Brandon Ingram. The question then is whether that improvement would be worth the cost of acquiring him. New Orleans would likely be looking for multiple first round picks and players. And if this is the only trade the Jazz make, they would likely still only move up to the play-in, not true playoff contention. This is exactly what many fans don’t want; being stuck in the middle. Not tanking, and not truly contending.
That situation may not be as bad as may believe, however. The Jazz would still likely have a large stash of future draft picks to build around Markkanen and Ingram, and Ingram may even be a more valuable trade piece in the future should he increase his Stock while playing for the Utah Jazz. He could be an important part of a trade for a true number one option in the future.
Brandon Ingram would not single-handedly make the Utah Jazz a playoff contender. There are only a few select players that would. However, given his age, on court production, and fit with the team, the Jazz might take a flyer on the Pelicans forward and make the trade. And it might not be such a bad idea.
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